Hudson Institute Economic Report

September’s employment data provide the strongest evidence yet that the economy is now in a recession. The index of aggregate weekly hours shrank by 0.5 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment recorded a loss of 159,000 jobs, the biggest monthly decline since 2003. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 6.1 percent in September due to people withdrawing from the labor market. The labor force participation rate fell one tenth of a percentage point to 66.0 percent. Unemployment rate for adult men rose from 5.6 to 6.1 percent, while adult female unemployment rate fell from 5.3 to 4.9 percent.

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Hudson Institute Economic Report

In addition to the financial turbulence on Wall Street, this week’s data show that economics is indeed the dismal science. The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised downward to 2.8 percent from the preliminary estimate of 3.3 percent. New orders for manufactured durables decreased 4.5 percent in August while the more important measure of new orders for core capital goods, which excludes aircraft and defense capital goods, fell 2.01 percent. Shipments of new orders for manufactured durable goods and core capital goods declined 3.5 percent and 1.7 percent respectively.

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